As expected, Nifty got off to a soft start. However, sharp and volatile selling in the first hour of trading gripped the market. At one point Nifty found itself down by more than 180 points. However, the index improved gradually over the rest of the day. It managed to end flat with a negligible gain of 12.50 points or 0.08 percent, falling over 200 points from the day’s low.
Monday’s session can be taken as another warning sign as the technical setup has now become uncertain, to say the least. Volatility has come very close to its lowest point seen in early 2020. Volatility increased slightly on Monday as India VIX rose 3.95 percent to 14.6600. The area of 15,800-15,860 is now acting as an important resistance zone for the markets. If Nifty stays below this zone then no meaningful upside is likely. On the other hand, any corrective move is likely to widen the trading range as in the morning of the previous session.
On Tuesday, once again a slow start of business can be seen. The 15,830 and 15,875 levels will act as resistance points. Support comes at the 15,710 and 15,620 levels.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now at 70.19 and is in a moderately overbought zone. Importantly, the RSI is showing a new bearish divergence against the price. While price action saw the formation of a higher, the RSI did not and resulted in a bearish divergence. The daily MACD is bullish and above the signal line. However, the narrow gap in the histogram sends clear bearish signals of momentum, while Nifty is marking an incremental higher.