The index witnessed a rally in Friday’s session as Nifty reached its new high in the first hour of the session. However, after that, the market retraced from its high point and remained largely confined for the rest of the session. After giving up most of its gains at one point, the index pulled itself back in the afternoon session. The Nifty finally ended the day with a net gain of 61.60 points or 0.39 percent.
From a technical standpoint, the index is at a stage where the risk to reward ratio is extremely unfavorably placed when chasing momentum. Unless there is sufficient trailing stop loss and strict adherence, the chances of getting stuck on the wrong foot are high. India VIX saw a fresh decline in volatility by another 6 percent at 14.1025.
The market is giving enough signals to traders to protect current profits at current levels. Such low levels of the VIX are indeed uncertain. The longer it remains at such low levels, the greater the potential for a violent increase in volatility.
On Monday Nifty may start softening. The 15,830 and 15,885 levels will act as resistance points, while support will come at 15,700 and 15,630.
The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart stood at 69.87; It again showed a strong bearish divergence against the price. The daily MACD was bullish but the slope of the histogram showed a continued decline in momentum.