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Oil Analysis: The growing global supply glut and the coronavirus-led demand destruction

West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures of the US are trading at the top of the last session after a potentially bearish technical reversal on Thursday. The chart pattern so far has not been followed by follow-through sales, but the pattern has not yet been ruled out. This inward move suggests investor indecision and imminent volatility.

At 09:12 GMT, June WTI crude oil futures are trading at $ 24.25, $ 0.26 or + 1.12% and July Brent crude oil at $ 29, $ 0.27 or + 0.91%.

China crude import growth

Crude oil was put under pressure on Thursday, as the industry was hit by rising global supply and coronavirus-led demand was wiped out, but it was higher after figures of China’s crude oil imports increase last month. Based on customs figures for the first four months of 2020, according to Reuters calculations, imports in April totaled 10.42 million barrels per day (in March) from 9.68 million bpd per day.

However, total exports from China also rose against the expectation of a sharp decline, although a large drop in total imports suggested that any recovery is in some way far away as economies around the world are in the grip of recession, implying that Fuel demand will be least likely.

US Energy Information Administration Weekly List Report

The EIA reported on Wednesday that US crude inventories increased 4.6 million barrels for the week ending May 1. The data, which included changes in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, marked the 15th consecutive weekly increase but was smaller than the average increase of 7.1 million barrels. The forecast by analysts was voted on by S&P Global Platts.

Crude stock in Cushing, Oklahoma futures hub rose nearly 2 million barrels for the week. EIA data shows that domestic crude production is 11.9 million barrels per day, which is 200,000 bpd.

The EIA said gasoline supply fell by 3.2 million barrels and distillate stockpiles rose by 9.5 million barrels. A survey by S&P Global Platts expected a drop in the supply of 400,000 barrels for gasoline, while distilled reserves were 3.5 million barrels more.

Daily forecast

The market has been rallying for two weeks as investors have indicated a slowdown in production and easing of restrictions related to coronavirus worldwide. Crude oil has been a smaller back-to-back subsidiary than inventory builds, but the increase in the distilled stockpiles made up for that news.

We are seeing very little coverage, but traders are reluctant to look long after the fundamentals of the recession. This can change if values ​​drag into a price field. Furthermore, traders are not going to gain confidence in playing long term until they start to see that the effort to reopen the economy is proving successful

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About Dwipen Gogoi

Dwipen Gogoi, MBA (IB and IT) and PGDFT from Pune. (Technical Analyst of AliceBlue) I am a You Tuber, Blogger and doing Technical Analysis last 10 years in Stock, Commodity and Forex Market. i am creating various trading strategies for day traders, swing traders, scalp traders.

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