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Weekly Report 04.03.2019

INDIAN MARKET  WEEKLY REPORT

The indices started last week on a positive note, but fear of an escalation in the Indo-Pak conflict kept traders on the sidelines. However, bulls regained some confidence on the last day of week (March 1), led by temporary relief in geopolitical tensions. The Nifty closed with a weekly gain of 0.6 percent at 10,915.20.

On the weekly chart, last week Nifty form a hammer candle stick pattern. and monthly has formed three indecisive candles in a row, indicating that trend is completely missing for the last three months. All major moving averages on a daily timeframe are trading almost flat, reflecting the tight rangebound move.

Last week trading session, the Sensex and the NIFTY ended flat. ML Mid-cap Index and ML Mega-cap Index advanced 2% each. ML Large-cap Index rose 1%. ML Small-cap Index ended flat. ML Micro-cap Index dipped 1%.
Index
25 Feb
01  Mar
Change (%)
ML Micro-Cap Index
68.56
67.76
-2%
ML Small-Cap Index
80.38
80.61
0%
ML Mid- Cap Index 
75.86
77.15
2%
ML Large-Cap Index
81.54
82.65
1%
ML Mega-Cap Index
84.03
85.42
2%
Sensex
35871.48
35867.44
0%
Nifty
10791.65
10915.20
0.6%

International Market review

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told U.S. lawmakers early in the week that they are going to be patient with their interest rate policy until things clarify.  He testified that there are “conflicting signals”, with hiring and wage growth going strong, while retail sales have slowed down.  Powell is also watching the effect that slower growth overseas has on the U.S. economy.  The fourth quarter U.S. GDP slowed down but still grew at a rate of 2.6% – which is significantly higher than economists’ estimate of 2.2%.  The U.S. economy was powered by strong business investment in equipment, software, and research.

U.S. crude slid 2.5 percent to settle at $55.80 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, used to price international oils, dropped 1.9 percent to close at $65.07 a barrel in London.

Bond prices fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 2.76 percent from 2.71 percent late Thursday.

The dollar rose to 112.01 yen from 111.42 yen on Thursday. The euro weakened to $1.1357 from $1.1379.

Gold fell 1.3 percent to $1,299.20 an ounce. Silver dropped 2.4 percent to $15.26 an ounce. Copper declined 0.5 percent to $2.93 a pound.

In other energy futures trading, wholesale gasoline slid 1.3 percent to $1.73 a gallon. Heating oil lost 1.3 percent to $2 a gallon. Natural gas gained 1.7 percent to $2.89 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Global markets (Returns in Canadian dollar terms)
EQUITY INDICESLevelChange1-weekYTD1-year
S&P/TSX16,068.25+ 55.24+ 0.34%+ 12.19%+ 4.38%
S&P 5002,803.69+ 11.02+ 1.26%+ 9.05%+ 8.06%
DJIA26,026.32-5.49+ 0.84%+ 8.79%+ 9.14%
FTSE 1007,106.73-71.87+ 0.89%+ 6.70%-1.73%
CAC 405,265.19+ 49.34+ 1.98%+ 7.70%-3.91%
DAX11,601.68+ 143.98+ 2.30%+ 6.32%-8.60%
Nikkei21,602.69+ 177.18+ 0.43%+ 3.67%-2.11%
Hang Seng28,812.17-4.13+ 0.84%+ 8.47%-4.48%

 

CURRENCY RETURNSCADChange1-weekYth1-year5-year
US$1.3296+ 0.0161+ 1.23%-2.50%+ 3.58%+ 3.74%
Euro1.5112+ 0.0223+ 1.50%-3.35%-4.04%-0.21%
Yen0.0119+ 0+ 0.07%-4.53%-1.71%+ 1.78%

 

 

CANADIAN TREASURIESYieldChangeCOMMODITIESUSDChange
3-month1.66-0.01Oil$55.76– $1.50
5-year1.81+ 0.01Gold$1,291.55– $36.70
10-year1.94+ 0.05Natural Gas$2.97+ $0.23

MCX and COMEX Weekly Review

As U.S. Dollar edge up, Gold price slips close below $1300. On Friday The dollar price is pulling the rug from under gold on U.S.-China trade fears, pressure for the yellow metal below the $1300line gold price endure pressure bugs had last weeks. Another bull run-up in the U.S. Dollar tends to take shine off for gold, its direct rival. Gold spot for April contract delivery settled down -$21.65, or -1.65%, at $1,294.20 per ounce on the COMEX division of the NYMEX, easing for a fifth-straight day. It was the first time gold had lost its $1,300 perch since Jan. 20.

Crude oil falls 2.53 percent, Brazil to offer areas with “significant ‘oil volumes.

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate and London’s Brent, the global benchmark for Crude oil, tumbled about 2% each on Friday in a belated reaction to Thursday’s announcement by the United State. Energy Department that it was offering up to 6 million barrels of emergency stocks from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Natural gas futures traded Friday at about $2.80 in NYMEX. But in a corner of the United State. Northwest, Natural Gas spot prices rocketed to more than 70 times that level as frigid temperatures sent traders scrambling for extra supplies.

Base metal: Lead, Zinc, Nickel rise; Aluminium falls

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mixed at the close of trading on Friday March 1, with a continued trend of record-low inventories failing to spur persistent price rallies amid broad strength in the US dollar index. Base metal prices may trade with sideways to a negative bias. Copper may test Rs 460, facing headwinds near Rs 468.65 on MCX. Zinc can hit Rs 201, staring at a hurdle near Rs 197. Lead can trade on a mixed path in the range of Rs 151.50-154. Nickel can test Rs 950, taking support near Rs 925.

Last Week MCX Change

MCXDate

22-02-19

Date

01-03-19

% Chg
GOLD3351732640-2.62%
SILVER4026839035-3.06%
COPPER462.35462.65+0.06%
CRUDE40853973-2.74%
ALUMINIUM134.40149.40+11.16%
LEAD145.90152.10+4.25%
NICKEL917.80935.20+1.90%
ZINC194.50199.60+2.62%
NATURAL GAS192.30202.90+5.51%

Last Week COMEX Changes

COMEXDate 22-02-19Date 01-03-19% Chg
GOLD1328.231290.08-2.87%
SILVER15.9115.13-4.90%
CRUDE57.1755.78-2.43%
COPPER2.93932.9171-0.76%
$ INDEX96.4096.38-0.02%
USDINR71.0370.99-0.06%

 

Global Economic Calendar from 04.03.2019 To 09.03.2019

TIMECURRENCYEVENTSIMPORTANCEFORECASTPREVIOUS
Monday, 04th Mar 2019
10:30pmAUDRBA Rate StatementHigh
Tuesday, 5th Mar 2019
10:35amGBPBOE Gov Carney SpeaksHigh
Wednesday, 6th Mar 2019
8:30amCADTrade BalanceHigh-1.7B-2.1B
10:00amCADBOC Rate StatementHigh
10:00amCADOvernight RateHigh1.75%1.75%
7:30pmAUDRetail Sales m/mHigh0.3%-0.4%
Thursday, 7th Feb 2019
7:45amEURMain Refinancing RateHigh0.00%0.00%
8:30amEURECB Press ConferenceHigh
Friday, 8th Mar 2019
8:30amCADEmployment ChangeHigh-2.5K66.8K
8:30amCADUnemployment RateHigh5.8%5.8%
8:30amUSDAverage Hourly Earnings m/mHigh0.3%0.1%
8:30amUSDNon-Farm Employment ChangeHigh185K304K
8:30amUSDUnemployment RateHigh3.9%4.0%
10:00pmUSDFed Chair Powell SpeaksHigh

What’s ahead next week:

Canada

  • March 6 – Bank of Canada rate announcement
  • March 7 – Building Permits
  • March 8 – Housing Starts and Employment Numbers

U.S.

  • March 5 – New Home Sales
  • March 6 – Factory Orders
  • March 8 – Employment Numbers

Note- Above all data are taken from various sources.

(Disclosure: Alice Blue or its research analysts, or his/her relative or associate do not have any direct or indirect financial interest or any other material conflict of interest at time of stock recommendation, in the subject company. Also, Alice Blue or its research analysts, or his/her relative or associates does not have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject company.)

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About Dwipen Gogoi

Dwipen Gogoi, MBA (IB and IT) and PGDFT from Pune. (Technical Analyst of AliceBlue) I am a You Tuber, Blogger and doing Technical Analysis last 10 years in Stock, Commodity and Forex Market. i am creating various trading strategies for day traders, swing traders, scalp traders.

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