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Weekly Report 4th March To 9th March 2019

State Bank of India has become the first domestic lender to link the interest rate offered on savings bank deposits over Rs 1 lakh to the Reserve Bank of India’s repo rate. Starting May 1, these deposits will earn interest at 2.75 percent below the repo rate, which currently stands at 6.25 percent. Interest rates on cash credit and overdraft will also be linked to the repo rate. These will be priced at 2.25 percent above the repo rate. In addition, spread based on a borrower’s credit quality will also be added to arrive at the final interest rate. The decision, if followed by other large lenders, will mark an important shift in the pricing of deposits in addition loans in the Indian banking system. So far banks have linked interest rates to their own cost of funds. However, since cost of savings and current account deposits were constant, the cost of funds did not adjust to policy rate changes in a timely manner, leading to concerns about delayed transmission of monetary policy in the economy.

SBI’s decision could help change that to some extent. “Transmission can’t happen only on one side. This is where external benchmarking comes in,” said Rajnish Kumar, chairman of State Bank of India on the sidelines of an event in Mumbai. “By linking savings bank accounts to repo rate, the Marginal Cost Lending Rate will also get adjusted automatically with the change in repo rate,” Kumar said. Under SBI’s new interest rate strategy, retail loans, including home loans, will continue to be linked to MCLR. Every 25 basis point change in the repo rate will impact MCLR linked loans by 7-8 basis points.

Weekly Changes Index

Index01 Mar07 Mar

Change (%)

ML Micro-Cap Index

66.2569.936%

ML Mid- Cap Index

79.3083.01

5%

ML Small-Cap Index

82.2985.33

4%

ML Large-Cap Index

85.1089.33

5%

ML Mega-Cap Index

87.7989.03

1%

Sensex36036.8136729.46

2%

Nifty

10863.5011058.20

2%

Weekly Gainer / Loser

Index

01 Mar07 Mar

Change (%)

Mega- Cap Gainers / Losers

EFS

139.75164.7518%

Endurance Technology

1275.051180.20

-7%

Large-Cap Gainers / Losers
Weels India778.95998.85

28%

Dish TV India41.3538.95

-6%

Mid-Cap Gainers / Losers
Jaiprakash Power Ventures1.902.45

29%

Reliance Communication6.615.91

-11%

Small-Cap Gainers / Losers
HIM Teknogorge125.45164.60

31%

Raj Television Network46.5040.85

-12%

Micro-Cap Gainers / Losers
ZESS4.636.50

40%

AF&H34.8530.00

-14%

International Market review

Stocks in the United States began the week with gains, after the U.S. and China were said to be close to a trade deal that could be signed later this month. But the S&P 500 reversed course and fell to a three-week low as fresh economic data made it clear the U.S. was losing economic momentum along with the rest of the world. As in Canada, the interest-rate-sensitive “bond proxies” (e.g. utilities, real estate) outperformed. Health care, energy, and industrials led on the downside.

Most major European equity markets struggled as the OECD emphasized special concern for Europe when it cut its growth forecasts, and the ECB expressed more caution inaddition, pledged to keep rates lower for longer due to the weakening economy. Stocks in the United Kingdom outperformed amid growing optimism that a hard Brexit might be avoided. Markets in Japan and Hong Kong retreated in tandem with the global “risk-off” move. Stocks in China initially jumped early in the week as new stimulus measures were reported to be coming, including a large cut to the country’s VAT (value added tax) rate for manufacturing. Friday’s trade data brought a sharp reversal, but the Shanghai Composite Index is still up almost 20% so far in 2019, outpacing all other major markets.

This week’s Global Indices market closing values

Indexes
Close
Change
Weekly (CAD)
YTD (CAD)
1 year (CAD)
S&P/TSX15,996.21– 72.04– 0.45%+ 11.68%+ 2.94%
S&P 5002,743.07– 60.62– 1.12%+ 7.83%+ 3.81%
DJIA25,450.24– 576.08– 1.17%+ 7.51%+ 5.97%
FTSE 1007,104.31– 2.42– 0.46%+ 6.21%– 3.72%
CAC 405,231.22– 33.97– 0.69%+ 6.96%– 5.83%
DAX11,457.84– 143.84– 1.28%+ 4.96%– 12.29%
Nikkei21,025.56– 577.13– 0.81%+ 2.84%– 2.51%
Hang Seng28,228.42– 583.75– 0.99%+ 7.39%— 4.64%

 

CURRENCY RETURNSCADChange1-weekYth1-year5-year
US$1.3410+ 0.0113+ 0.85%– 1.66%+ 3.99%+ 3.88%
Euro1.5063– 0.0047– 0.31%– 3.66%– 5.12%– 0.42%
Yen0.0121+ 0.0002+ 1.54%– 3.00%– 0.62%+ 2.36%

 

CANADIAN TREASURIESYieldChangeCOMMODITIESUSDChange
3-month1.66– 0.01Oil$56.03+ $0.23
5-year1.65– 0.16Gold$1,299.43+ $6.03
10-year1.76– 0.17Natural Gas$2.92– $0.27

MCX and COMEX Weekly Review

(04thMar to 08 thMar 2019)

Crude oil falls 2.53 percent, Brazil to offer areas with “significant ‘oil volumes. New York-traded West Texas Intermediate and London’s Brent, the global benchmark for Crude oil, tumbled about 2% each on Friday in a belated reaction to Thursday’s announcement by the United State. Energy Department that it was offering up to 6 million barrels of emergency stocks from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Natural gas futures traded Friday at about $2.80 in NYMEX. But in a corner of the United State. Northwest, Natural Gas spot prices rocketed to more than 70 times that level as frigid temperatures sent traders scrambling for extra supplies.

Base metal: Lead, Zinc, Nickel rise; Aluminium falls

Base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mixed at the close of trading on Friday March 1, with a continued trend of record-low inventories failing to spur persistent price rallies amid broad strength in the US dollar index. Base metal prices may trade with sideways to a negative bias. Copper may test Rs 460, facing headwinds near Rs 468.65 on MCX. Zinc can hit Rs 201, staring at a hurdle near Rs 197. Lead can trade on a mixed path in the range of Rs 151.50-154. Nickel can test Rs 950, taking support near Rs 925.

Last Week MCX Change

MCXDate22-02-19Date01-03-19% Chg
GOLD3351732640-2.62%
SILVER4026839035-3.06%
COPPER462.35462.65+0.06%
CRUDE40853973-2.74%
ALUMINIUM134.40149.40+11.16%
LEAD145.90152.10+4.25%
NICKEL917.80935.20+1.90%
ZINC194.50199.60+2.62%
NATURAL GAS192.30202.90+5.51%

Last Week COMEX Changes

COMEXDate 22-02-19Date 01-03-19% Chg
GOLD1328.231290.08-2.87%
SILVER15.9115.13-4.90%
CRUDE57.1755.78-2.43%
COPPER2.93932.9171-0.76%
$ INDEX96.4096.38-0.02%
USDINR71.0370.99-0.06%

 

Global Economic Calendar from 11.03.2019 To 15.03.2019

TIMECURRENCYEVENTSIMPORTANCEFORECASTPREVIOUS

Monday, 11th Mar 2019

12:30EURBalance of TradeHigh€13.9B
18:00USDRetail Sales MoMHigh0%-1.2%

Tuesday, 12th Mar 2019

06:00AUDNAB Business ConfidenceHigh34
15:00GBPBalance of TradeHigh£-3.229B
18:00USDCore Inflation Rate YoYHigh2.2%2.2%
18:00USDInflation Rate YoYHigh1.6%1.6%

Wednesday, 13th Mar 2019

00:30GBPParliamentary Vote on Brexit DealHigh
05:00AUDWestpac Consumer Confidence ChangeHigh4.3%
05:00AUDWestpac Consumer Confidence IndexHigh103.8
18:00GBPSpring Budget 2019High
18:00USDDurable Goods Orders MoMHigh-0.7%1.2%

Thursday, 14th Mar 2019

12:30EURInflation Rate YoY FinalHigh1.6%1.4%

Friday, 15th Mar 2019

19:30USDMichigan Consumer Sentiment PrelHigh95.593.8

What’s ahead next week:

Canada

  • New Housing Price Index (January)
  • Manufacturing sales (January)

U.S.

  • Retail sales (January)
  • Consumer and Producer Price Indices (February)
  • Durable goods orders (January)
  • Construction spending (January)
  • Import and Export Price Indices (February)
  • New home sales (January)
  • Industrial production and capacity utilization (February)
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey (March)
  • Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (March)
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About Dwipen Gogoi

Dwipen Gogoi, MBA (IB and IT) and PGDFT from Pune. (Technical Analyst of AliceBlue) I am a You Tuber, Blogger and doing Technical Analysis last 10 years in Stock, Commodity and Forex Market. i am creating various trading strategies for day traders, swing traders, scalp traders.

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