July 2024 promises to be a pivotal month for the Indian stock market, with several key events on the horizon. The Union Budget, monsoon progression, and Q1FY25 earnings season are expected to significantly influence market dynamics. Investors will closely monitor these events, along with crucial economic data releases.
The upcoming Union Budget 2024 to 25 is the most anticipated event. While the exact date is not confirmed, it’s expected in mid-July. Investors will scan tax regulations and policy reforms. President Murmu has hinted at futuristic measures and accelerated reforms in the budget, raising market expectations.
Monsoon progression is another critical factor. With agriculture contributing 14% to India’s GDP, a normal monsoon is vital for controlling food inflation and boosting rural consumption. Despite IMD’s forecast of above-normal rainfall, June has seen 20% below-normal precipitation, causing concern.
Key economic data releases will be closely watched. Domestic inflation figures, manufacturing and service PMI data, and WPI inflation numbers could significantly impact the market. Globally, US core CPI data and potential policy changes ahead of the US election could influence foreign institutional investments.
The Q1FY25 earnings season, starting in mid-July with tier-1 IT companies will provide crucial insights into corporate performance. These results, coupled with the other factors, will shape market direction as indices hover at record highs. Investors are advised to approach the month with caution.
